Thursday, November 1, 2012

Superstorm Sandy Pushes Cleveland Rainfall to October Record

The fringes of Superstorm Sandy reached well into the Midwest, as Cleveland reported a peak wind gust of 68 mph at 11:25 pm on October 29. Heavy rainfall also pushed the monthly precipitation to new records at Cleveland and Mansfield, and near-record amounts were observed elsewhere in Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania. From the National Weather Service:
CLEVELAND HOPKINS OCTOBER 2012 MONTHLY PRECIPITATION TOTAL AS OF 5PM  
TODAY WAS 10.24 INCHES WHICH IS THE WETTEST OCTOBER ON RECORD. THE   
PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 9.50 INCHES SET BACK IN 1954.  
  
MANSFIELD LAHM AIRPORT OCTOBER 2012 MONTHLY PRECIPITATION TOTAL AS  
OF 5PM TODAY WAS 7.26 INCHES WHICH IS THE WETTEST OCTOBER ON RECORD.   
THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 7.02 INCHES SET BACK IN 1919.  
  
YOUNGSTOWN REGIONAL AIRPORT OCTOBER 2012 MONTHLY PRECIPITATION TOTAL  
AS OF 5PM TODAY WAS 5.80 INCHES WHICH RANKS THE 4TH WETTEST OCTOBER  
ON RECORD. PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 5.43 INCHES SET IN 1946.    
  
AKRON CANTON REGIONAL AIRPORT OCTOBER 2012 MONTHLY PRECIPITATION   
TOTAL AS 5PM TODAY WAS 5.22 INCHES WHICH IS THE RANKED AS THE 3RD   
WETTEST OCTOBER ON RECORD.  
  
ERIE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT OCTOBER 2012 MONTHLY PRECIPITATION TOTAL  
AS OF 5PM TODAY WAS 7.98 INCHES AND TIES THE RECORD OF THE 3RD   
WETTEST OCTOBER SET IN 1926.  

Tuesday, October 30, 2012

Preliminary Data: Sandy Precipitation Breaks Mid-Atlantic Records

October 30, 7 PM Update: Based on daily records from the National Climatic Data Center, yesterday's rain from Sandy was also the 5th wettest day of any month in Baltimore climate history dating back to 1871. It was the highest precipitation for any day other than in the months of July through September.

October 30, 4 PM Update:
The Washington National daily total of 3.85" is confirmed by the National Weather Service. The amounts at Washington Dulles and Baltimore were all-time daily records for the month of October:
A RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL OF 4.25 INCHES WAS SET AT WASHINGTON   
DULLES DC YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD FOR THE 29TH OF 1.03   
INCHES SET IN 2011.   
  
YESTERDAY'S RAINFALL WAS ALSO THE WETTEST CALENDAR DAY IN OCTOBER AT   
DULLES. THE PREVIOUS WETTEST OCTOBER DAY WAS 1 OCTOBER 1979...WHEN   
4.06 INCHES OF RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED.  

A RECORD RAINFALL OF 5.51 INCHES WAS SET AT BALTIMORE MD YESTERDAY.   
THIS BREAKS THE OLD DAILY RECORD FOR THE 29TH OF 1.51 INCHES SET IN   
1973. YESTERDAY'S RAINFALL WAS ALSO THE WETTEST CALENDAR DAY IN   
OCTOBER AT BALTIMORE. THE PREVIOUS WETTEST OCTOBER DAY WAS 10   
OCTOBER 1922...WHEN 4.38 INCHES OF RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED.  
Records were also set at Philadelphia, Atlantic City (more than doubling a 104-year-old record), Wilmington, Avoca PA, Pittsburgh, Harrisburg, Rochester, and Buffalo. According to the National Climatic Data Center, the records at Wilmington and Atlantic City were also all-time October daily records. The Washington National amount was an all-time October record at the current location (76 years). The NWS reports:
A RECORD DAILY RAINFALL AMOUNT OF 2.68 INCHES WAS SET AT THE   
PHILADELPHIA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD   
OF 1.72 INCHES SET BACK IN 1953.   

A RECORD RAINFALL OF 4.79 INCHES WAS SET AT ATLANTIC CITY NJ   
YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 2.33 SET IN 1908.  

A RECORD RAINFALL OF 3.79 INCHES WAS SET AT WILMINGTON DE YESTERDAY.   
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 2.56 SET IN 1953.  

A RECORD RAINFALL OF 1.64 INCH(ES) WAS SET AT AVOCA PA TODAY.   
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 1.39 SET IN 1953.  

A RECORD RAINFALL OF 1.72 INCH(ES) WAS SET AT PITTSBURGH PA   
YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 1.19 SET IN 1973.  

A RECORD RAINFALL OF 2.93 INCHES WAS SET AT HARRISBURG YESTERDAY.   
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 1.87 SET IN 1935. A CONTINUOUS WEATHER RECORD HAS BEEN KEPT AT HARRISBURG SINCE 1888.  

A RECORD RAINFALL OF 1.44 INCHES WAS SET AT ROCHESTER NY YESTERDAY.   
THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 0.71 SET IN 1935.  

A RECORD RAINFALL OF 1.42 INCHES WAS SET AT BUFFALO NY YESTERDAY.   
THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 1.21 SET IN 1917.  
Original post:
The unofficial total rainfall today of 3.85" at Washington not only breaks the record for October 29 (2.69" in 1885) by over 1", but it is also the highest precipitation so late in the season. It's the second highest daily amount for any day in October, and it's the only time over 3" has been observed later in the year than October 25, except for the 3.10" on December 7 last year.

Monday, October 29, 2012

Post-Tropical Hurricane Sandy Threatens Mid-Atlantic Low Pressure Records

Oct. 30, 2 AM Update: NWS is reporting that the Baltimore low pressure was 964.4 mb, beating the old record by 1.5 mb.

Midnight Update: Preliminary data indicate that Washington bottomed out at 28.63"/969.5 mb, and Baltimore hit 28.49"/964.9 mb. This would break the Baltimore record by 1 mb.

Original post:
The National Weather Service reports that the post-tropical phase of Hurricane Sandy could threaten the modern record for low pressure readings at Washington and Baltimore:
PRELIMINARY INFORMATION ON LOWEST PRESSURE RECORDED AT WASHINGTON DC 
AND BALTIMORE MD...BOTH MEASURED IN THE MARCH 1993 SUPER STORM...

WASH DC... 28.54 INCHES HG 966.5 MB MEASURED AT 23Z ON 13 MARCH 1993 
BALT MD... 28.52 INCHES HR 965.9 MB MEASURED AT 00Z ON 14 MARCH 1993

THESE VALUES WERE ARRIVED AT BY SEARCHING AN INTERNAL DATABASE OF 
OBSERVATIONS MAINTAINED UNOFFICIALLY HERE AT THE WEATHER OFFICE. 
THE DATABASE GOES BACK TO 1929. 

Sunday, October 28, 2012

Arctic Alaska's Autumn Anomaly: Record Warm October at Barrow

November 11 Update: The warm streak has continued into the first third of November. The monthly average through the 11th is 13.7°, which is 9.0° above normal. Only 2 days so far have been below average (-2° on the 3rd and 5th).

November 1 Update: The preliminary monthly report from the National Weather Service shows the average temperature for October 2012 was above expectations at 27.5°. That is 10.3° above normal and 2.0° above the previous record. [Charts updated.]

The excessively warm temperatures were also reflected in the precipitation total which was 72% above normal.

9 PM Update: As of 2 pm local time, the daily high of 27° and low of 26° yield an average which is 17° above normal. This is now the 6th consecutive day with temperatures of at least 15° above normal.

Original post:
In mid-July, a certain high-traffic weather/climate blog was prematurely touting "Coldest July in history for Anchorage?", and this claim was widely echoed in the climate deniosphere. As noted by Tamino at Open Mind and further discussed in the comments, the Question Mark ? was significant, since the final July average missed the record by over 1°F, putting 2012 in 7th place.

Needless to say, no correction was ever published for this misinformation by the perpetrators, and here's something else you're not likely to see from them: With 4 days left in the month, Barrow, on Alaska's Arctic coast is on track to smash its record for warmest October by an unprecedented margin.

The National Climatic Data Center notes that "Barrow is the most northerly First-Order station operated by the National Weather Service." As such, it has a reliable temperature record extending back nearly a century, to 1920. The first 10 days of October started off as the warmest on record, and the warm streak has continued through the remainder of the month. In fact, the departures from normal have increased even further in the past week, reaching an astonishing 21° yesterday, the 27th. All of the past 5 days have been at least 15° above average. So far, every single day of October has averaged above normal except one which was equal, and the forecast indicates that will continue with double-digit departures through the end of the month.

The monthly average temperature so far of 28.0° is currently 9.6° above average. Despite a cooling trend in the next several days, the forecast temperatures through the 31st indicate a final monthly average of 27.3°, or nearly 13° above the October normal of 14.6°. This would be 1.8° above the previous record in 2006, a margin greater than the difference between the current warmest October and the 7th warmest. Note that 7 of the 10 warmest Octobers at Barrow have occurred in the years beginning in 1998.

Daily high temperature records of 41° and 38° were set on the 5th and 6th. Highest minimum temperature records were set on 4 consecutive days from the 3rd through the 6th, when the temperature failed to go below freezing. Additional warm low records were set on the 23rd (28°) and the 27th (27°). Including 3 more high minimums set in 2011, 9 warmest lows have occurred in the past 2 years. By contrast, only one low minimum temperature record has been set at Barrow in the 13 years of this century.

The extraordinary late-season warmth at Barrow reflects an area of above-normal air temperatures over the Arctic Ocean from north of Siberia eastward to the Beaufort Sea near Alaska, where temperatures have averaged as much as 14°C above normal. This extremely warm area corresponds closely with the wide area of open ocean remaining from the record-breaking Arctic ice melting season of 2012.

Images (click to enlarge):
- October temperatures for 2012 vs. previous 10 warmest years at Barrow, Alaska; CapitalClimate chart from NWS data
- Daily average Barrow temperatures for October 2012 vs. normal; CapitalClimate chart from NWS data
- Northern Hemisphere temperature departures from normal for October 1-24, 2012 from NOAA/ESRL
- Arctic sea ice extent, October 15, 2012 vs. historical median (1979-2000) from National Snow and Ice Data Center

Seasonal Outlook

Latest seasonal forecast: Click here.


Latest 3-month temperature outlook from Climate Prediction Center/NWS/NOAA.