Thursday, June 14, 2012

"It Hasn't Warmed Since 1998": All 13 Mays This Century in Warmest 14


The ancient confusian saying, "It hasn't warmed since 1998", has been well debunked by now, but it keeps getting bunked. Today's release of preliminary global temperature data for May 2012 provides yet another nail in the proverbial coffin, however. With the latest May land and ocean average temperature taking second place behind 2010 for warmest on record, May 1998 has been pushed down to third place. And what about the other 12 years this century, beginning with 2000? The CapitalClimate chart from National Climatic Data Center data shows that every single one of these years is also in the top 14 warmest for the month of May.

Record May Heat Extends to Northern Hemisphere, Global Land Surface


Not only did the U.S. break the record for warmest May, but National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) preliminary data, released late this morning, show that the entire Northern Hemisphere land and ocean surface temperature and the global land temperature were also the warmest on record. The combined global land and ocean temperature was the second warmest on record, behind 2010. All continents, except Australia, averaged warmer than the climatological base period of 1971-2000.

Some highlights from the NCDC:
The Northern Hemisphere land and ocean average surface temperature for May 2012 was the all-time warmest May on record, at 0.85°C (1.53°F) above average.

The globally-averaged land surface temperature for May 2012 was the all-time warmest May on record, at 1.21°C (2.18°F) above average.

The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for May 2012 was 0.66°C (1.19°F) above the 20th century average of 14.8°C (58.6°F). This is the second warmest May since records began in 1880, behind only 2010.

For March–May (boreal spring) 2012, the combined global land and ocean surface temperature was 0.59°C (1.06°F) above average—the seventh warmest such period on record.

The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for January–May 2012 was the 11th warmest on record, at 0.50°C (0.90°F) above the 20th century average.

Tuesday, June 12, 2012

Update: NCDC Regional Data Confirm 6th Month of U.S. Weekly Warmth


National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) preliminary regional data confirm that the U.S. has completed its 26th consecutive week of warmer than normal temperatures on June 9. This marks 6 full months of continuously warm average temperatures. The geographically adjusted national average (NAT) was 0.55°F above the climatological normal, up from 0.28°F the previous week.

Of the 9 climate regions, 5 were below normal: Northeast (NE), Central (C), Southeast (SE), Northwest (NW), and West (W). The other 4 were above normal: East North Central (ENC), West North Central (WNC), South (S), and Southwest (SW). The coolest region relative to average was the Northwest (-4.8°F), and the warmest was the West North Central (+3.6°F). As shown on the chart, each region reversed between warm and cool in the past 2 weeks, except for the South and Southwest, which remained warm.

Sunday, June 10, 2012

Texas Toast 2012: More Texas High Temperature Records Set, Tied

As has become a common event in recent summers, high temperature records were tied and broken in several parts of Texas today. Some National Weather Service reports from within the last hour:
A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 107 DEGREES WAS SET AT DEL RIO TODAY.   
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 103 SET IN 1996.

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 100 DEGREES OCCURRED AT SAN ANTONIO
TODAY. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 100 DEGREES LAST SET IN 1948, BUT
ALSO OCCURRED IN 1917 AND 1906.

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 101 DEGREES WAS SET AT HARLINGEN TODAY.
THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 101 SET IN 1942.

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 99 DEGREES WAS SET AT BROWNSVILLE
TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 98 SET IN 2001.

THE TEMPERATURE IN AMARILLO REACHED 100 DEGREES AS OF 218 PM TODAY.
THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD WHICH OCCURRED IN 1917 AND 1964.

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 110 DEGREES WAS SET AT CHILDRESS
TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 106 SET IN 1958.

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 108 DEGREES AT SAN ANGELO SETS A NEW RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURE. THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 104 DEGREES WAS SET IN 1958.

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 102 DEGREES AT ABILENE TIES THE RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURE. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET IN 1958.

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 105 DEGREES WAS SET AT MIDLAND TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 103 SET IN 2011.

Weekly Weather, Wee View: 26th Consecutive Week U.S. Temperature Warmer Than Average




After dipping to within 0.3° of average last week, preliminary National Weather Service (NWS) data indicate that the week of June 3-9 (ending yesterday) was the 26th consecutive week that U.S. temperatures have been warmer than average. The average temperature for 214 NWS stations was 0.9° above the 1981-2010 climatology. Temperatures were mostly below average on both coasts, particularly in the Pacific Northwest, but generally warm conditions from the Mississippi Valley westward through the Rockies were enough to bring up the average. The warmest individual location was Denver, Colorado (CO-DEN) at +12°, and the coolest was Pendleton, Oregon (OR-PDT) at -9°.

Images (click to enlarge):
- Weekly average U.S. temperature departures from normal, weeks ending June 4, 2011 (20110604) through June 9, 2012 (20120609); CapitalClimate chart from NOAA/NCDC data
- Weekly average NWS station temperature departures from normal, week ending June 9, 2012; stations listed alphabetically by state and 3-character station identifier; CapitalClimate chart from NWS data
- Average U.S. temperature and departure from normal for week ending June 9, 2012 from High Plains Regional Climate Center

Over 1 Foot of Non-Tropical Rainfall Smashes 99-Year Pensacola Record by Nearly 7 X

Image (click to enlarge): 24-hour precipitation ending at 7 am CDT, June 10, 2012 in the Mobile-Pensacola region, from National Weather Service

5 PM CDT Update: Rainfall has gradually tapered off this afternoon at Pensacola, but the daily total is up to 1.92".

Original post:
Excessive rainfall from a nearly stationary non-tropical storm crushed the daily precipitation record at Pensacola, Florida on June 9 (Saturday). The 13.13" of rain drowned the old record of 1.95" set in 1913 by a factor of 6.7 to 1. It was also the second highest all-time daily rainfall amount, exceeded only by the 15.29" from a tropical storm on October 5, 1934. The previous all-time June daily record was 10.10" on the 29th in 1887.

Over 1" fell in each of 5 consecutive hours and in 7 out of 8 consecutive hours. The largest amount was 3.17" (over 1" more than the previous daily record) in the hour ending at noon. An additional 1.51" of rain had already been recorded by 1 pm CDT today. The record for June 10 is 2.81" in 1968. Pensacola climate records began in 1879.

The 5.79" at Mobile, Alabama also smashed the June 9 record, which was 1.39" in 1968.

This schematic map from the National Weather Service shows a slow-moving upper-level low pressure area and a stationary front along the Gulf Coast (click to enlarge):



Contrast the current situation with the track of the October 1-6, 1934 tropical storm, from NOAA (click to enlarge):

Seasonal Outlook

Latest seasonal forecast: Click here.


Latest 3-month temperature outlook from Climate Prediction Center/NWS/NOAA.