Saturday, June 6, 2009

Climate Collapse: Fiction Fodder

Post-apocalyptic dystopias have long been a theme of science fiction, and the growing public awareness of global warming has recently been finding expression in fiction. A trilogy (Forty Signs of Rain, Fifty Degrees Below, and Sixty Days and Counting) by Kim Stanley Robinson, completed in 2007, was set in a climate-changed Washington, DC.

The latest example of the genre, Far North by Marcel Theroux, is reviewed in today's WaPo:
Marcel Theroux's homespun tale about a solitary frontier survivor conjures up a monolithic world that's ominous and deeply memorable. He depicts a bleak Earth transformed, perhaps a century or two from now, by global warming and a society reduced to a mostly empty, radioactive husk; the remnant peoples are violent, ignorant and few and far between. Against the gray backdrop of abandoned towns, poisoned cities and occasional wildlife, a tough, hardy frontierswoman named Makepeace struggles to eke out a living on the strange and swiftly changing land.
The book is being published Tuesday (June 9) in the U.S. after having been released in the U.K. in March; it was reviewed by the Telegraph and the Independent at that time. The book was also reviewed recently by Strange Horizons.

In March, the author was the host of a documentary about Japan on BBC, "In Search of Wabi Sabi":

Rare Russian Rotation
Heavy Tornado Damage Near Moscow

The Russia! magazine blog has pictures and videos of an extremely rare damaging tornado in the town of Krasnozavodsk near Moscow on Wednesday (June 3).

Friday, June 5, 2009

Washington Stays in Rainfall Bullseye

See here for other Washington, DC weather records

Images (click to enlarge): Washington DC 2009 vs. 2008 monthly precipitation, CapitalClimate chart from National Weather Service (NWS) data; 30-day precipitation percentage of average from NWS

11 pm Update: Storm total reports from the National Weather Service:
********************STORM TOTAL RAINFALL********************  

LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS
RAINFALL OF
(INCHES) MEASUREMENT

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA

..DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA

NATIONAL ARBORETUM 4.74 800 AM 6/5 COOP
ANACOSTIA 3.13 800 AM 6/5
DALECARLIA RESERVOIR 2.38 800 AM 6/5 COOP
ADAMS MORGAN 1.93 730 AM 6/5

MARYLAND

..ALLEGANY COUNTY

CRESAPTOWN 2.08 700 AM 6/5 COCORAHS
CUMBERLAND 1.90 700 AM 6/5 1.2 SE
FROSTBURG 1.86 800 AM 6/5 COOP
CUMBERLAND 1.65 800 AM 6/5

..ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY

ODENTON 2.64 559 AM 6/5 0.8 WSW
CROFTON COMMONS 2.59 700 AM 6/5 1.5 NNE
CROFTON 2.46 700 AM 6/5 COCORAHS
SEVERN 2.39 700 AM 6/5 2 W
LAUREL ACRES 2.02 800 AM 6/5 2.7 E
SOUTH GATE 1.75 900 AM 6/5 1.0 SW
SOUTH GATE 1.72 845 AM 6/5 3.0 SSW
HERALD HARBOR PARK 1.56 800 AM 6/5 0.5 NE
PASADENA 1.47 700 AM 6/5 0.7 SE
SEVERNA PARK 1.43 820 AM 6/5 1.9 ENE

..BALTIMORE COUNTY

TOWSON 1.92 830 AM 6/5 0.8 SW
KINGSVILLE 1.86 900 AM 6/5 2.5 NNE
LONG GREEN MANOR 1.60 800 AM 6/5 0.6 SW
TOWSON 1.53 700 AM 6/5 2.3 NE
COCKEYSVILLE 1.43 900 AM 6/5 3.7 N
JACKSONVILLE 1.33 800 AM 6/5 1 SW
JACKSONVILLE 1.17 628 AM 6/5 1.5 NE

..CALVERT COUNTY

CHESAPEAKE BEACH 2.05 700 AM 6/5 2.3 SE
SOLOMONS ISLAND 1.82 800 AM 6/5 COOP

..CARROLL COUNTY

MOUNT AIRY 2.43 700 AM 6/5 COCORAHS
ELDERSBURG 1.83 700 AM 6/5 2.0 SE
DISTRICT 1 1.29 700 AM 6/5 3.7 NE
WESTMINSTER 1.28 700 AM 6/5 1.0 W
TANEYTOWN 1.27 700 AM 6/5 3.2 NE

..CHARLES COUNTY

WHITE PLAINS 1.20 800 AM 6/5 5.5 WNW
WALDORF 1.05 500 AM 6/5 3.6 SSE
WALDORF 0.94 700 AM 6/5 3.2 SW
WALDORF 0.94 405 AM 6/5 2.4 W

..CITY OF BALTIMORE

HAMILTON 2.73 600 AM 6/5 COCORAHS
BALTIMORE 2.36 800 AM 6/5 KBWI

..FREDERICK COUNTY

FREDERICK 2.05 625 AM 6/5 3.1 NW
NEW MARKET 1.95 700 AM 6/5 4.8 WSW
THURMONT 1.77 900 AM 6/5 0.8 SSE
FREDERICK 1.74 600 AM 6/5 3.5 SSW
FREDERICK 1.52 1100 AM 6/5 7.2 ENE

..HARFORD COUNTY

ABINGDON 1.89 700 AM 6/5 0.5 NNE
ABERDEEN 1.66 800 AM 6/5 COOP
BEL AIR 1.46 700 AM 6/5 1.7 W
FALLSTON 1.16 600 AM 6/5 3.9 WNW
JARRETTSVILLE 1.10 820 AM 6/5 1.3 N
NORRISVILLE 1.08 800 AM 6/5 COCORAHS
HAVRE DE GRACE 0.81 600 AM 6/5 4.0 WNW

..HOWARD COUNTY

SAVAGE 2.65 600 AM 6/5 3.0 W JESSUP
ELKRIDGE 2.62 700 AM 6/5 1.8 W
GLENELG 2.10 800 AM 6/5 COOP
COLUMBIA 2.04 700 AM 6/5 1.7 W
ELLICOTT CITY 1.83 707 AM 6/5 1.3 WSW
WEST FRIENDSHIP 1.79 700 AM 6/5 1.7 SSE SYKESVILLE
COLUMBIA 1.77 730 AM 6/5 2.6 NW
GLENWOOD 1.75 615 AM 6/5 2.6 SE SYKESVILLE
COLUMBIA 1.73 700 AM 6/5 2.3 N
CLARKSVILLE 1.62 800 AM 6/5 1.0 SE
ELLICOTT CITY 1.51 900 AM 6/5 0.5 N

..MONTGOMERY COUNTY

WHITE OAK 3.44 700 AM 6/5 1.2 N
WHITE OAK 2.89 700 AM 6/5 1.7 NW
POTOMAC 2.71 700 AM 6/5 0.9 NNW
WHEATON 2.59 700 AM 6/5 0.7 NE
KENSINGTON 2.57 700 AM 6/5 COCORAHS
TAKOMA PARK 2.57 700 AM 6/5 0.6 NNW
LAYTONSVILLE 2.40 800 AM 6/5 COOP
SILVER SPRING 2.40 700 AM 6/5 0.9 N
COLESVILLE 2.25 700 AM 6/5 1.7 W
DAMASCUS 1.94 800 AM 6/5 COOP
NORBECK 1.85 700 AM 6/5 1.0 SE
DAMASCUS 1.67 700 AM 6/5 1.0 S
CLARKSBURG 1.65 700 AM 6/5 2.1 NE
ROSSMOOR 1.63 700 AM 6/5 1.3 ESE

..PRINCE GEORGE'S COUNTY

OXON HILL 2.92 800 AM 6/5 COOP
BOWIE 2.17 730 AM 6/5 0.5 E
OXON HILL 1.97 800 AM 6/5 1.1 W
FORESTVILLE 1.85 700 AM 6/5 1.1 W
CAMP SPRINGS 1.62 700 AM 6/5 1.6 NNW
CAMP SPRINGS 1.60 600 AM 6/5 COCORAHS
FOREST HEIGHTS 1.58 745 AM 6/5 1.6 SE
SUITLAND 1.52 700 AM 6/5 2.1 SE
FRIENDLY HILLS 1.37 600 AM 6/5 1.0 N
MARLTON 1.03 700 AM 6/5 6.0 E
BRANDYWINE 1.01 700 AM 6/5 6.7 ESE

..ST. MARY'S COUNTY

LEONARDTOWN PARK 2.68 600 AM 6/5 0.6 NE
LEONARDTOWN 2.12 600 AM 6/5 2.9 ESE
HOLLYWOOD 2.04 700 AM 6/5 1.5 NW
RIDGE 2.02 700 AM 6/5 1.0 N
PARK HALL ESTATES 1.88 700 AM 6/5 COCORAHS
CHARLOTTE HALL 1.74 700 AM 6/5 3.6 ENE

..WASHINGTON COUNTY

WILLIAMSPORT 2.22 800 AM 6/5 COOP
SHARPSBURG 2.07 800 AM 6/5 COOP
WILLIAMSPORT 2.04 700 AM 6/5 2.1 ESE
SMITHSBURG 1.83 800 AM 6/5 COOP
WILLIAMSPORT 1.77 429 AM 6/5 2.8 ENE

VIRGINIA

..ALBEMARLE COUNTY

EARLYSVILLE 3.04 800 AM 6/5 COOP

..ARLINGTON COUNTY

BARCROFT 2.65 600 AM 6/5 2.4 NE
ARLINGTON 2.57 530 PM 6/5 KDCA
ARLINGTON 1.96 800 AM 6/5 1.1 NW

..AUGUSTA COUNTY

CRAIGSVILLE 0.76 800 AM 6/5 COOP

..CITY OF ALEXANDRIA

ALEXANDRIA 2.87 700 AM 6/5 1.8 S

..CITY OF CHARLOTTESVILLE

CHARLOTTESVILLE 1.11 800 AM 6/5

..CITY OF FREDERICKSBURG

FREDERICKSBURG 3.05 800 AM 6/5 COOP

..CITY OF MANASSAS

MANASSAS 2.40 800 AM 6/5 COOP

..CITY OF STAUNTON

STAUNTON 0.98 800 AM 6/5 COOP

..CITY OF WAYNESBORO

WAYNESBORO 0.71 600 AM 6/5 COCORAHS

..CITY OF WINCHESTER

WINCHESTER 2.58 800 AM 6/5 7 SE
WINCHESTER 2.57 800 AM 6/5
WINCHESTER 1.77 600 AM 6/5 0.5 ENE

..CULPEPER COUNTY

CULPEPER 3.38 800 AM 6/5 COOP
RIXEYVILLE 1.90 600 AM 6/5 2.5 N
RIXEYVILLE 1.55 700 AM 6/5 6.1 N
RIXEYVILLE 1.36 700 AM 6/5 6.3 NNE

..FAIRFAX COUNTY

RESTON 3.40 800 AM 6/5 1.4 SSE
VIENNA 2.94 800 AM 6/5 COOP
VIENNA 2.88 800 AM 6/5 3.3 N
HERNDON 1.98 700 AM 6/5 3.3 S
MCLEAN 1.79 700 AM 6/5 2.3 SE
FRANCONIA 1.45 830 AM 6/5 1.3 SSE
LORTON 1.41 800 AM 6/5 COOP

..FAUQUIER COUNTY

WARRENTON 2.03 700 AM 6/5 3.5 SE
REMINGTON 1.99 515 AM 6/5 4 ENE
REMINGTON 1.84 740 AM 6/5 5.5 NNE
WARRENTON 1.59 432 PM 6/5 6.1 S
WARRENTON 1.37 750 AM 6/5 5.5 SSE

..FREDERICK COUNTY

GORE 1.68 740 AM 6/5 9.4 NW WINCHESTER
MIDDLETOWN 1.59 800 AM 6/5 COCORAHS

..GREENE COUNTY

STANARDSVILLE 0.80 600 AM 6/5 2.1 WNW

..LOUDOUN COUNTY

DULLES AIRPORT 4.02 530 PM 6/5 KIAD
STERLING 3.31 800 AM 6/5 WFO STERLING
ROUND HILL 1.54 700 AM 6/5 2.7 WSW
LEESBURG 1.45 800 PM 6/5 8.0 N

..MADISON COUNTY

HAYWOOD 1.65 800 AM 6/5 COOP

..NELSON COUNTY

SHIPMAN 0.54 400 AM 6/5 1.8 NE

..ORANGE COUNTY

BARBOURSVILLE 0.90 920 AM 6/5 1.1 NW

..PAGE COUNTY

SHENANDOAH NATIONAL 3.40 800 AM 6/5 COOP

..PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTY

GAINESVILLE 2.78 700 AM 6/5 1.6 SE
LAKE RIDGE 1.33 800 AM 6/5 1.7 SW

..RAPPAHANNOCK COUNTY

CASTLETON 2.47 800 AM 6/5 COOP

..ROCKINGHAM COUNTY

PENN LAIRD 0.80 700 AM 6/5 COCORAHS
DALE ENTERPRISE 0.67 800 AM 6/5 COOP

..SHENANDOAH COUNTY

STRASBURG 2.21 700 AM 6/5 3.7 N STRASBURG
WOODSTOCK 2.10 800 AM 6/5 COOP
STRASBURG 1.50 800 AM 6/5 COOP

..SPOTSYLVANIA COUNTY

MASSAPONAX 4.34 600 AM 6/5 5.2 SSW FREDERICKSBURG

..STAFFORD COUNTY

BROOKFIELD 3.30 735 AM 6/5 4 E FREDERICKSBURG

..WARREN COUNTY

FRONT ROYAL 2.61 800 AM 6/5 COOP

WEST VIRGINIA

..BERKELEY COUNTY

MARTINSBURG 2.52 800 AM 6/5 KMRB
MARTINSBURG 2.50 800 AM 6/5 COOP
MARTINSBURG 2.20 700 AM 6/5 8.0 ENE
FALLING WATERS 1.73 700 AM 6/5 2.4 NW
BUNKER HILL 1.68 700 AM 6/5 0.8 WNW

..GRANT COUNTY

BAYARD 3.00 800 AM 6/5 COOP
PETERSBURG 2.62 800 AM 6/5

..HAMPSHIRE COUNTY

SLANESVILLE 2.17 700 AM 6/5 2.1 SE
SPRINGFIELD 1.73 726 AM 6/5 2.3 ENE

..HARDY COUNTY

LOST RIVER STATE 1.58 800 AM 6/5 COOP

..JEFFERSON COUNTY

SHENANDOAH JUNCTION 1.98 700 AM 6/5 COCORAHS
HARPERS FERRY 1.51 600 AM 6/5 2.6 WNW
HARPERS FERRY 1.06 700 AM 6/5 2.8 SSE

..MINERAL COUNTY

KEYSER 2.48 800 AM 6/5 COOP
OLD KEYSER DAM 2.06 700 AM 6/5 3.4 ESE
FORT ASHBY 1.81 700 AM 6/5 1.1 ESE
Evening Update: Today's totals through 5 pm:
Washington National 0.55"
Washington Dulles 0.77"
Baltimore (BWI) 0.63"
PM Update: Today's totals through 2 pm:
Washington National 0.55"
Washington Dulles 0.58"
Baltimore (BWI) 0.59"
Original post:
With a third consecutive day of moderate to heavy showers prompting flood watches and warnings, the Washington DC region continues to add to precipitation totals ranging up to 300% of average over the last 30 days. Thursday's amounts, month-to-date, and year-to-date totals were:
Washington National 0.52"/2.02"/19.29"
Washington Dulles 0.56"/3.25"/23.03"
Baltimore (BWI) 0.63"/1.73"/21.01"
Although the first 5 days of June have gotten off to a roaring start, so far in 2009 the only month to exceed 2008's precipitation total has been January. With another half an inch plus recorded through 1 pm today, this month still has a way to go to reach the 4.8" in June 2008, which was 53% above the average of 3.13".

The rainfall bounty has also not been shared evenly across the broader region. Many outlying areas in Maryland and Virginia are below average for the last 30 days.

Thursday, June 4, 2009

National Climate Service Bill Passes House Committee

The House Committee on Science and Technology yesterday passed H.R. 2407, the National Climate Service Act of 2009, by a vote of 24 to 12. A bipartisan amendment by Rep. Brian Baird (D-WA) and Rep. Bob Inglis (R-SC) postpones the creation of a new organization by first setting up a "Climate Service Program" within NOAA. A 3-year process is then defined to develop a "collaborative, interagency research and operational program" and evaluate alternatives for implementation. The evaluation process, to be carried out through the Committee on Environment and Natural Resources (CENR) of the National Science and Technology Council, is required to report its results to Congress within 2 years along with a plan for establishing the National Climate Service.

Rep. Baird stated:
In a climate that is changing, it is imperative that we have reliable information to help us adapt and respond to these changes. My amendment puts in place a mechanism that will allow the best minds from every relevant federal agency to share information, and ultimately decide on the best structure, and organizational home for the National Climate Service. By doing this, we will ensure that when the National Climate Service is created, it will be better able to identify the problems created by global overheating, and armed with this information, better able to find solutions.

Tuesday, June 2, 2009

Hurricane Forecast Revised Downward
Energy Market Underwhelmed

Following the golden rule of long-range forecasting ("Forecast early and often"), the landlocked hurricane forecasters at Colorado State today revised their Atlantic tropical season outlook downward from their April predictions. The current forecast calls for slightly below-average activity and slightly below average probability of major hurricane landfall:
  • Named storms: 11
  • Hurricanes: 5
  • Major hurricanes: 2
The probability of a major hurricane landfall is projected to be:
  • Entire U.S. coast: 48%
  • East Coast, including peninsular Florida: 28%
  • Gulf Coast: 28%

After having run up 20% in the past week (as much as 10% yesterday alone), natural gas prices following the forecast announcement have been down less than 2%.

Image: 7-day chart of U.S. Natural Gas Fund price, from Fidelity Investments

Sunday, May 31, 2009

Washington Closes Out Second Consecutive Near-Record May Rainfall
Dulles Ties Record

Image (click to enlarge): Month-to-date precipitation percentage of average as of 8 am May 31, from National Weather Service

Yet more showers overnight producing about a quarter of an inch of precipitation have put May 2009 firmly in position as the 6th wettest in Washington history. This follows the even wetter May 2008, which was the 3rd wettest. With only a 20% chance of additional showers the rest of today, the likely final monthly totals in the region are:
Washington National 8.05"
Washington Dulles 10.26"
Baltimore (BWI) 8.42"
At Dulles, whose records began only in 1963, this ties the May record set in 1988, but is well short of the June record of 18.19" in 1972. Baltimore's total beats out the 7.77" last year to claim second place behind 8.71" in 1989.

Seasonal Outlook

Latest seasonal forecast: Click here.


Latest 3-month temperature outlook from Climate Prediction Center/NWS/NOAA.